Rajasthan results send warning signal to BJP

Urban setbacks expose vote-share decline, internal divisions.

The results of the Rajasthan urban civic body elections have sounded alarm bells for the BJP. If the party does not introspect on these results, the party could face setbacks. The BJP failed to secure a majority in the constituencies of Chief Minister Bhajanlal Sharma, state president Madan Rathore and almost all Union Ministers from the state. Although the BJP managed to install a mayor in the CM’s home district, the victory of 38 independent candidates signals a vote against it.

In Ajmer—considered a stronghold of the Sangh— the Congress is set to form the municipal board after 36 years. Looking at the constituencies of key leaders, the party faced disappointment in Madan Rathore’s Pali. In Union Minister Arjun Ram Meghwal’s Bikaner, the Congress caused an upset by securing a majority.

However, the involvement of Congress leader and former minister B.D. Kalla in his son’s political ambitions could also spoil the game. In Jodhpur and Alwar—the constituencies of Union Ministers Gajendra Singh Shekhawat and Bhupender Yadav—the BJP will manage to form boards through political maneuvering but failed to secure an outright majority.

Union Minister of State Bhagirath Chaudhary and Assembly Speaker Vasudev Devnani also suffered a setback in Ajmer. Former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje also disappointed in her region. While the BJP celebrated its victory, an analysis of the overall vote percentage and results reveals figures that raise concerns.

The BJP has suffered a decline in vote share. Looking at the municipal corporation results, the party secured a majority in only four out of ten corporations. It is a different matter that the BJP might still install its mayors in the corporations it lost by using political maneuvering.

This is the situation regarding the urban results; elections in rural areas are scheduled for next month, and the BJP is considered weak in rural regions. If the BJP falters in rural areas, the Assembly elections scheduled for two years from now will become an uphill battle. The voting percentage across 309 local bodies in Rajasthan sends a clear message that all is not well for the BJP. The BJP secured 35.8 per cent of the vote, while the Congress garnered 34.24 per cent—a margin of merely 0.94 per cent between the two.

Notably, independent candidates and other parties collectively secured over 28 per cent of the vote. This situation persists despite the presence of a “double-engine” government in the state. Chief Minister Sharma personally spearheaded the campaign. Had the Congress mobilised its strength with greater unity, the results could have been even more surprising.

In Jodhpur, the Congress secured two per cent more votes than the BJP. Similarly, in Jaipur, the Congress received 14,620 more votes but failed to form the board. Former Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot attributes the Congress’s losses in Jodhpur and Jaipur to flawed delimitation. Gehlot has expressed concern over the political maneuvering and horse-trading being employed to form boards across the state.

He notes that while governments were previously toppled at the state level, such tactics are now being used at the district level, suggesting that democracy in the country is eroding. The local body election results indicate that, according to this assessment, the general public has become disillusioned with the BJP. Indeed, these election results in Rajasthan also bring the BJP’s internal infighting to light. This infighting is the reason why political appointments in the state have yet to be made.

Questions are also being raised regarding the ministers; for instance, State Education Minister Madan Dilawar has come under fire following the formation of an Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) board in Baran. While Chief Minister Sharma and state president Rathore may appear together publicly, these results have cast doubt on the political experience of both leaders.

Village-level elections are scheduled for October, and the government will complete three years in office in November. Factionalism remains suppressed due to strong central leadership; otherwise, the situation may even be more precarious than that of the Congress.

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